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美联储

Yellen inflation concerns cast doubt on Fed’s rate-rise path
耶伦承认美国通胀持续偏低

美联储主席的谨慎表态意味着美国央行逐步加息的路径产生变数,投资者对美联储在更长时期内维持宽松产生期盼。

Janet Yellen acknowledged yesterday that the US’s persistently subdued ­inflation could raise questions about the Federal Reserve’s current path of gradually lifting interest rates and vowed to watch prices “very closely” for signs they were stagnating.

珍妮特•耶伦(Janet Yellen)昨日承认,美国持续疲软的通胀可能使美联储(Federal Reserve)逐步提升利率的当前路径产生变数,她誓言将“非常密切地”关注价格,留意价格停滞的迹象。

The Fed chair insisted it was “premature” to second guess her policymakers’ determination that inflation was slowly heading towards the central bank’s ­target of 2 per cent. But her note of ­caution helped sparked a rally in US Treasuries and equities, with investors hopeful Ms Yellen would maintain the Fed’s easy money stance for longer.

美联储主席坚持认为,现在就质疑她的政策制定者的判断——通胀正缓慢升向2%的美国央行目标水平——还“为时过早”。但她的谨慎表态帮助引发美国国债和股票涨势,投资者对耶伦将在更长时期内维持美联储的宽松货币姿态抱有希望。

The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit a new intraday high of 21,580.79 and yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury slid more than 4 basis points to 2.316 per cent.

道琼斯工业平均指数(Dow Jones Industrial Average)涨至21580.79点的日内新高,而基准的10年期国债收益率下跌逾4个基点,至2.316%。

Ms Yellen was broadly positive about the economy’s performance in testimony to Congress, stressing there had been a rebound in household spending over recent months and that the Fed was still expecting further rate increases.

耶伦在国会作证时,对美国经济的表现总体上表示肯定,强调最近几个月家庭消费出现反弹,而美联储仍预期将进一步加息。

But she also said she was studying the inflation data for signs that short-term drags on prices might not be the only factors holding them back. She added that rates might not need to be lifted a lot more to return to a neutral stance.

但她也表示,她正在研究通胀数据,看有没有迹象表明,短期拖累价格的因素也许不是抑制价格的唯一因素。她补充说,利率可能不需要再提高很多,就能恢复中性姿态。

“We are watching inflation very carefully,” Ms Yellen told Congress. “I do believe part of the weakness in inflation reflects transitory factors but well recognise that inflation has been running under our 2 per cent objective, that there could be more going on there.”

“我们正在密切关注通胀,”耶伦告诉国会。“我确实认为,通胀的一部分弱势反映了暂时因素,但我也充分意识到,通胀一直在我们2%的目标下方运行,而这可能说明了更多问题。”

Analysts said Ms Yellen’s remarks marked a small but significant change of thinking, putting the Fed’s path of gradually pulling back on economic stimulus in question.

分析师们表示,耶伦的言论标志着一个细小但重要的思路变化,给美联储逐渐撤销经济刺激的路径画上了问号。

“Yellen’s statement today reveals that the Fed isn’t as sure about inflation as they led us to believe,” said Luke Bartholomew, investment strategist at Aberdeen Asset Management.

“从耶伦今日的声明看,美联储对于通胀并不像他们之前呈现给我们的印象那么有把握,”安本资产管理公司(Aberdeen Asset Management)投资策略师卢克•巴塞洛缪(Luke Bartholomew)表示。

Emerging markets, which depend on money flows from low-yielding rich countries, were particularly heartened. The South African rand, the Turkish lira and the Russian rouble led a rally of emerging market currencies, with the rand jumping over 2 per cent.

依靠来自低收益率富裕国家的资金流动的新兴市场尤其受到鼓舞。新兴市场货币汇率全面走高,南非兰特、土耳其里拉和俄罗斯卢布领涨,其中兰特汇率跃升2%。

Fed policymakers ended their latest meeting split on how to respond to disappointing inflation data. Core inflation retreated slightly to 1.4 per cent in May, defying predictions from some rate-setters that price growth would be buoyed by the robust jobs recovery.

对于如何回应令人失望的通胀数据,美联储政策制定者在最近的会议上意见分歧。5月份核心通胀微幅回落至1.4%,没有应验一些利率制定者的预测,即强劲的就业复苏将推动价格上涨。

While only one rate-setting official dissented over the Fed’s quarter-point rate increase in June persistently weak inflation could yet embolden doves in the coming months.

尽管只有一个制定利率的官员对美联储6月加息四分之一点表示异议,但持续疲软的通胀仍可能在未来几个月鼓励利率鸽派。

For her part, Ms Yellen has repeatedly argued during the Fed’s rate-raising cycle that inflation will eventually materialise given the continued improvements in the jobs market, and she stuck firmly to this view yesterday.

耶伦本人在美联储此轮加息周期多次辩称,由于就业市场持续改善,通胀最终将会上扬,昨日她坚守这一观点。

Additional reporting by Adam Samson

亚当•萨姆森(Adam Samson)补充报道

译者/和风

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