Low migration risks an economic doom loop for the UK - FT中文网
登录×
电子邮件/用户名
密码
记住我
请输入邮箱和密码进行绑定操作:
请输入手机号码,通过短信验证(目前仅支持中国大陆地区的手机号):
请您阅读我们的用户注册协议隐私权保护政策,点击下方按钮即视为您接受。
英国移民

Low migration risks an economic doom loop for the UK

The next government must realise that a managed and open policy is essential for long-term growth
00:00

{"text":[[{"start":9.6,"text":"The writer is a senior fellow of the think-tank UK in a Changing Europe and professor of economics and public policy at King’s College London "}],[{"start":17.939999999999998,"text":"Depending on which of the main parties’ manifestos you read, immigration to the UK is either too high or much too high and the next government will cut it. "},{"start":25.906999999999996,"text":"Unlike many other manifesto promises, this one will almost certainly be kept. "},{"start":30.323999999999998,"text":"Visa applications for work and study are down 30 per cent this year already, while emigration is rising. "},{"start":35.94199999999999,"text":"Applications for work visas in the health and care sector have fallen by an astonishing 75 per cent. "}],[{"start":42.519999999999996,"text":"Good news for a Labour government? "},{"start":44.699,"text":"Only in a very narrow sense. "},{"start":46.678999999999995,"text":"The impact of the pandemic and its aftermath on the UK’s labour force, in particular the rise in the number of people out of work because of sickness and disability, has been well publicised. "},{"start":56.497,"text":"Less obvious has been the extent to which this has been offset by migration, with recent arrivals both much younger and more likely to work than the resident population. "},{"start":64.80199999999999,"text":"There are well over a million more people born outside the EU working in the UK than before the pandemic. "}],[{"start":70.8,"text":"A sharp fall in migration will therefore be a drag on both growth and the public finances. "},{"start":75.86699999999999,"text":"The Office for Budget Responsibility estimates that a “low migration” scenario would push up the deficit by £13bn at the end of the next parliament, even after taking account of the reduced need for spending on public services. "},{"start":87.209,"text":"That’s twice as much as Labour’s modest tax increases would raise. "},{"start":90.889,"text":"And it does not take into account the implications for the NHS and care sector workforce. "}],[{"start":96.53,"text":"But leaving aside narrow fiscal arithmetic, the bigger risk for Labour is a political and economic doom loop. "},{"start":102.434,"text":"Tighter migration policy makes it harder to finance and staff public services. "},{"start":106.864,"text":"There is convincing evidence that when centrist governments impose austerity in response to such constraints, it in turn drives support for populist and far-right parties, which blame the impacts of austerity on both immigrants and the “elites” in power. "}],[{"start":120.13,"text":"Meanwhile, restrictions on legal migration can also lead to an increase in the demand for migrants without authorisation to work. "},{"start":127.08399999999999,"text":"Visible increases in “uncontrolled” migration further undermine the government’s credibility on migration issues. "}],[{"start":133.2,"text":"We’ve seen versions of this across continental Europe for a decade, where neither marginalising the populist right nor co-opting them or their policies have so far been successful for mainstream political parties. "},{"start":143.82899999999998,"text":"The vacillation and appeasement demonstrated by much of the current Conservative party leadership towards Nigel Farage and Reform UK doesn’t give much confidence that we will do better. "}],[{"start":153.72,"text":"So the challenge for mainstream politicians, and indeed economists, is to break the doom loop. "},{"start":159.337,"text":"That means not ignoring the immigration issue nor offering watered-down versions of populist “solutions”. "},{"start":164.71699999999998,"text":"There is a window of opportunity here. "},{"start":166.934,"text":"In the past decade, the UK public’s attitudes to migration and especially its economic impacts has become more positive. "},{"start":173.639,"text":"The idea that the vast majority of the British public is hostile to immigration and that there is nothing that can be done to change that is false. "}],[{"start":181.38,"text":"Meanwhile, Labour has been commendably clear that growth, if not the answer to all the UK’s economic problems, is a necessary precondition for reversing them and that there are no easy answers or short-cuts. "},{"start":192.447,"text":"One essential part of long-term growth strategy — alongside education and skills policy, planning and infrastructure and much more — is a managed but also open and flexible migration policy. "}],[{"start":203.68,"text":"What does that mean in practice? "},{"start":205.684,"text":"Uncertainty resulting from frequent policy change over the past few years has undermined business confidence and investment in the UK. "},{"start":212.55200000000002,"text":"Labour needs to explain — and soon — that immigration is not the problem, but one part of the solution. "}],[{"start":218.48000000000002,"text":""}]],"url":"https://creatives.ftacademy.cn/album/160354-1719287326.mp3"}

版权声明:本文版权归FT中文网所有,未经允许任何单位或个人不得转载,复制或以任何其他方式使用本文全部或部分,侵权必究。

对话Otter.ai的梁松:我们可以从会议和对话中获取有价值的数据

这家会议转录初创公司的联合创始人认为,我们甚至可以用虚拟形象代替自己进行工作互动。

朔尔茨迎来自己的“拜登时刻”

德国总理受到党内压力,要求其效仿美国总统拜登退出竞选。

欧盟极右翼党团在气候和高层任命问题上获得更多支持

欧洲议会中右翼议员正越来越多地与极右翼联手瓦解该集团的绿色议程,并推动更严格的移民限制措施。

毛利人对新西兰后阿德恩时代的民粹主义转向感到愤怒

卢克森的保守党政府推翻了前总理的许多进步政策。

Lex专栏:英伟达令人炫目的增长与每个人都息息相关

这家芯片巨头的盈利对美国股票投资者来说是一件大事,这不仅仅是因为其3.6万亿美元的市值。

欧洲比以往任何时候都更需要企业增长冠军

欧洲正在急切地寻找企业增长冠军,FT-Statista按长期收入增长对欧洲企业进行的首次排名展示了这方面的可能性。
设置字号×
最小
较小
默认
较大
最大
分享×