Kamala Harris draws level with Donald Trump in race for the White House - FT中文网
登录×
电子邮件/用户名
密码
记住我
请输入邮箱和密码进行绑定操作:
请输入手机号码,通过短信验证(目前仅支持中国大陆地区的手机号):
请您阅读我们的用户注册协议隐私权保护政策,点击下方按钮即视为您接受。
2024年美国总统大选

Kamala Harris draws level with Donald Trump in race for the White House

FT polling analysis shows the Democrats’ probable candidate has revitalised her party’s campaign in just over a week
US vice-president Kamala Harris, left and Donald Trump. Harris has made gains across nearly every demographic group since President Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the election

Vice-president Kamala Harris has drawn level with former president Donald Trump in the polls barely a week into her presidential campaign, according to an FT analysis of the latest data.

President Joe Biden withdrew from the race on July 21, after a disastrous performance in his debate against Trump weeks earlier, and immediately endorsed Harris. Since then, she has all but wiped out her party’s national polling deficit against her rival, according to a Financial Times average of polls.

While Biden trailed Trump by 3 percentage points on the day he dropped out of the presidential race, Harris and the former president are now neck and neck nationally.

Ultimately, US elections are decided by the Electoral College, and therefore in a small subset of winner-take-all “battleground” states — including Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

In all six key battlegrounds, Harris’s recent polling represents a 1- to 3-point improvement over Biden’s before he dropped out a little over a week ago. Biden was trailing by two or more points in all six states at the time he dropped out, while Harris is now tied 50-50 with Trump in Michigan and Wisconsin and within a point of a tie in Nevada, Pennsylvania and Arizona. All are now statistical dead heats.

Harris has also made gains across nearly every demographic group since Biden’s withdrawal, according to like-for-like comparisons of surveys from numerous pollsters. In particular, her support has increased among Black, Latino, young and female voters, and independents. It has declined marginally with only one group — voters over the age of 50.

Predictive traders closely tracking the race have noted these shifts. Harris has eclipsed Biden’s pre-debate price on two prediction markets, Polymarket and PredictIt, though they still see her as a slight underdog to Trump, whose own price spiked after he was shot in an attempted assassination on July 13.

With less than 100 days until the election, Harris has injected notable enthusiasm into a previously demoralised Democratic party.

Harris’s entry has also revived the enthusiasm of Democratic voters in a race where turnout will be paramount. Of those who voted for Biden in 2020, 73 per cent say they are “excited” to vote for Harris, versus only 37 per cent who said they were excited to vote for Biden again, according to an FT analysis of polls. Moreover, the share of 2020 Biden voters who planned not to vote dropped to 3 per cent from 10 per cent.

Along with the renewed enthusiasm has come a fundraising bounty. Harris’s campaign on Sunday announced it had raised $200mn in less than a week, two-thirds of it from first-time donors.

Additional research by Oliver Hawkins and Jonathan Vincent

版权声明:本文版权归FT中文网所有,未经允许任何单位或个人不得转载,复制或以任何其他方式使用本文全部或部分,侵权必究。

造就埃隆•马斯克的神话

这位科技亿万富翁对唐纳德•特朗普的支持是其世界观的一部分,这种世界观来自硅谷最狂野的边界。

投资者警告称,强势美元将冲击新兴市场债券

新兴市场债务基金遭遇资金外流,因为发展中国家降息的希望破灭。

吉赛尔•佩利科,震惊法国的审判的核心人物

在法庭审理她如何被丈夫下药并被陌生人强奸时,她表现出了非凡的力量。

安东尼奥•科斯塔:“特朗普为什么要与欧洲打贸易战?”

欧洲理事会新任主席谈跨越政治分歧开展业务、面对腐败调查,以及为什么欧洲在危机中能发挥最大作用。

来自罗马的明信片:向好莱坞明星展示永恒之城秘密的“角斗士导游”

历史学家亚历山大•马里奥蒂是《角斗士II》的顾问,他兼职为汤姆•克鲁斯、比尔•盖茨和罗素•克劳做向导。

海上石油又回来了,但代价是什么?

在发生了历史上最严重的泄漏事故多年之后,公司为了寻找新的发现,正在钻探更深的海底钻井。
设置字号×
最小
较小
默认
较大
最大
分享×