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17周年大视野精选
【高端限免】Generation moonshot: why young investors are not ready to give up on risk
登月式投资:为什么年轻投资者不准备放弃风险?

Even amid a meltdown in crypto markets, DIY traders who came of age after the financial crisis no longer want to play by the old rules | 即使在加密货币市场崩溃之际,金融危机后成年的DIY交易员也不愿意再按旧规则行事。

With $1,000 in savings and two US government stimulus checks, Chris Zettler began investing in 2020. First he bought companies he knew, he says, “but then I got bored with it”. He moved on to call options in companies with volatile share-prices, riding the price swings. He used a win to buy 100 shares in the meme stock AMC at $30 in May and sold at about $65 in June.
带着1000美元的储蓄和两张美国政府的经济刺激支票,克里斯•泽特勒(Chris Zettler)于2020年开始投资。他说,首先他买入了他所熟悉的公司,“但后来我就厌倦了”。他转而购买股价波动较大的公司的看涨期权,利用价格的波动。他利用一次胜利,在5月以30美元的价格购买了100股网红股AMC,并在6月以约65美元的价格卖出。
The 35-year-old finance major at the University of Alabama, Birmingham, had a TD Ameritrade account that allowed him to trade on margin (borrowing money from the brokerage to amplify potential returns) and place nearly $8,000 in bets with his original $4,000 of capital. He turned that into $18,000.
35岁的他就读于亚拉巴马大学伯明翰分校(University of Alabama, Birmingham)金融专业,拥有一个TD Ameritrade的账户,可以进行保证金交易(从经纪公司借钱,以扩大潜在回报),并将4000美元的原始资金投入了近8000美元的押注。他把这笔钱变成了1.8万美元。
Zettler saw his account balance rise to $50,000 before falling to $35,000 when a bet went sideways. He sold $20,000 of shares and paid his college tuition fees: “I got lucky as heck,” Zettler says.
泽特勒看到他的账户余额涨到了5万美元,但在一次押注出现横盘时,他的账户余额跌到了3.5万美元。他卖出了2万美元的股票,还交了大学学费。“我真是太幸运了,”泽特勒说。
Yet the risk was worth it, he adds. The possibility of making outsized returns outweighed the risk of loss: “If I did it again, would I have done it the responsible way and just sat on that $4,000? Shoot, no . . . You don’t have anything to lose so you might as well shoot your shot.”
但他补充说,冒这个险是值得的。获得巨额回报的可能性超过了损失的风险:“如果我再做一次,我会以负责任的方式做这件事、然后只是坐拥那4000美元吗?说实话,不会…… 你没有什么可失去的,所以你还不如追求你想要的。”
Zettler is part of a generation of investors who came of age around the 2008 financial crisis and in its aftermath. Having struggled to accumulate wealth through traditional means over the past decade, many have turned to speculating in the riskier corners of financial markets.
泽特勒是在2008年金融危机及其余波中成长起来的一代投资者中的一员。在过去10年里,许多人难以通过传统方式积累财富,他们转而在金融市场中风险更高的角落进行投机。
Experts say the growing appetite for speculative assets such as cryptocurrencies, NFTs and “meme stocks” (whose value skyrocketed in early 2021, driven by retail traders and social media hype) is about more than just getting rich quick.
专家表示,对加密货币、NFT和“网红股”(2021年初,受散户交易员和社交媒体炒作的推动,这些股票暴涨)等投机资产的兴趣日益增长,这不仅仅是为了快速致富。
Stagnant wages, rock bottom interest rates, soaring house prices — and now, corrosive inflation — have cut away at the idea that the under-40s can follow the well-trodden path to financial security that their parents took. Younger investors report feeling like the game is rigged and that playing by the old rules is a losing strategy.
停滞不前的工资、极低的利率、飙升的房价——以及现在具有腐蚀性的通货膨胀——已经打破了40岁以下的人可以像他们的父母一样,走一条惯常的道路来获得财务安全的想法。年轻的投资者说,他们感觉游戏被操纵了,按旧规则行事是一种失败的策略。
In recent months, a combination of inflation and rising interest rates have shaken the crypto markets. Crashing coin prices and the high-profile bankruptcies of crypto lenders and hedge funds have exposed the dangerous practices that flourished in the riskiest areas of the market. The question now is whether the younger DIY investors will retreat.
最近几个月,通货膨胀和利率上升的共同作用动摇了加密货币市场。加密货币价格暴跌,加密贷款机构和对冲基金高调破产,暴露出市场风险最高领域盛行的危险做法。现在的问题是,年轻的DIY投资者是否会撤退。
Zettler’s experience suggests not. He has watched his peers chase desperate bets on cryptocurrencies and volatile stocks hoping to ride the next wave to riches. “A lot of people view it like they can’t afford not to,” he says. “I think they’re running out of hope.”
泽特勒的经验表明并非如此。他看到他的同龄人孤注一掷地押注加密货币和波动剧烈的股票,希望借助下一波浪潮致富。他说:“许多人认为,他们无法承受不这样做的后果。我认为他们已经没有希望了。”

Fear, uncertainty and doubt

恐惧、不确定和怀疑

Natasha Schüll, a cultural anthropologist at New York University, blames the increased appetite for risk on a widespread disillusionment with the notion that economic success is accessible to anyone who works hard enough. Part of the appeal of cryptocurrencies and meme-stock runs is that they are anti-establishment, designed to operate outside the rules of the traditional financial system.
纽约大学(New York University)的文化人类学家娜塔莎•许尔将风险偏好的增加归咎于对任何人只要努力工作就能获得经济成功这一观念的普遍幻灭。加密货币和网红股浪潮的部分吸引力在于,它们是反建制的,旨在于传统金融体系的规则之外运作。
“The idea that the mainstream economy is trustworthy, more so than these other [assets], is kind of dubious in recent experience,” she says. “There has been more and more willingness to say, ‘fuck it’.”
她表示:“从最近的经验来看,认为主流经济比其他(资产)更值得信赖的想法有点可疑。现在有越来越多的人愿意说,‘去他妈的’。”
The appetite for high-risk speculation is particularly sharp among Americans, who tend to have high levels of personal debt, researchers say. The average US student now graduates with $37,000 in student debt — up from $17,000 in 2001.
研究人员说,美国人对高风险投机的兴趣尤其强烈,他们往往有较高的个人债务水平。目前,美国大学生毕业时平均背负3.7万美元的学生债务,而2001年这个数字为1.7万美元。
“The idea is that you’re supposed to be able to save money for college, but almost no middle-class family can in a significant way,” says Caitlin Zaloom, a professor of social and cultural analysis at NYU. “There isn’t enough financial stability at the core of people’s lives. If there was, there would be little incentive to speculate.”
纽约大学社会和文化分析教授凯特琳•扎卢姆(Caitlin Zaloom)说:“这个想法是,你应该能够为上大学攒钱,但几乎没有一个中产家庭能在很大程度上做到这一点。人们生活的核心没有足够的金融稳定。如果有的话,就没有什么动机去投机了。”
Rent rises have outpaced income growth in most US states since 2001, according to estimates by the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. And inflation has pushed the cost of living higher in recent months. As low interest rates and heavy debt became a fact of life, relationships with risk changed, experts say. Young investors are less likely to approach speculative financial products as investments with underlying value. Rather, they are inclined to treat them like lottery tickets — probably worthless, but still worth the gamble on a life-changing payout.
根据预算与政策优先中心(Center on Budget and Policy Priorities)的估计,自2001年以来,美国多数州的租金涨幅超过了收入增幅。最近几个月,通货膨胀推高了生活成本。专家表示,随着低利率和沉重债务成为现实,与风险的关系发生了变化。年轻投资者不太可能将投机性金融产品作为具有潜在价值的投资。相反,他们倾向于把它们当作彩票——可能毫无价值,但仍然值得为改变人生的回报而赌一把。
“If you had lottery tickets for houses, investors would buy some of those, too,” says Jeremy Grantham, co-founder of the Boston-based asset management group GMO. “There is enormous inequality, and when people get fed up . . . they start to behave in strange and new ways.”
总部位于波士顿的资产管理集团GMO的联合创始人杰里米•格兰瑟姆表示:“如果有奖品是房子的彩票,投资者也会买一些。存在着巨大的不平等,当人们厌倦了……他们开始以奇怪和新的方式行事。”
The logic is simple, says Ben Johnson, head of exchange traded fund research at data provider Morningstar: “Negative real yields? No, thank you. What are the alternatives? JPEGs of monkeys and fake internet money? It’s not surprising that investors feel like they’re stuck between NFT pet rocks and a hard place.”
数据提供商晨星(Morningstar)交易所交易基金(ETF)研究主管本•约翰逊(Ben Johnson)表示,道理很简单:“实际收益率为负?不了,谢谢。有什么替代方案吗?猴子的JPEG图片和假的网络货币?难怪投资者会觉得自己被夹在石头宠物的NFT(非同质化代币)和艰难境地之间。”
The discontent isn’t limited to the US. A majority of British 35-year-olds surveyed by the insurance company Urban Jungle reported feeling at an “unfair disadvantage to the generations directly before them” when it comes to financial stability and savings.
这种不满并不仅限于美国。在接受保险公司Urban Jungle调查的35岁英国人中,大多数人表示,在金融稳定和储蓄方面,“他们相对于前几代人处于不公平的劣势”。
Gary Stevenson, a 35-year-old former trader and financial education campaigner from east London, is one: “My dad never went to university. He worked at the post office for 35 years and could raise three kids and pay off [a mortgage] . . . he has a comfortable retirement,” he says. “That is off the table for most young people now. It’s created a bit of a panic.”
来自伦敦东区的35岁的加里•史蒂文森(Gary Stevenson)曾做过交易员,现在是金融教育活动家。他就是这样一个人。他说:“我爸爸没上过大学。他在邮局工作了35年,可以抚养3个孩子并还清(抵押贷款)……他的退休生活很舒适。现在对大多数年轻人来说,这是不可能的。这造成了一些恐慌。”
“If you can’t do what your dad or grandad did . . . you have to come up with a better plan,” he adds. At some point, risky bets starts to look like the rational choice: “One way, you see a zero per cent chance of success. But if you take on insane risk . . . at least you have a chance.”
“如果你不能做你爸爸或爷爷做过的事……你必须想出一个更好的计划,”他补充道。在某种程度上,冒险的赌注开始看起来像是理性的选择:“对于这条路,你看到成功几率为零。但如果你冒着疯狂的风险……至少你还有机会。”

To the moon

登月式投资

During the meme stock frenzy of early 2021, stories of huge returns fuelled a rush of new trading. Some people won big. An investor who bought GameStop in late December 2020 could have turned £10,000 into £168,744 in a single month when the meme stock hit its peak on January 29 2021 — an almost 1,600 per cent gain. But there was also the potential for huge losses: an investor who bought at the top and then sold in late February would have shrunk the same £10,000 into £3,129 in a month, following a 69 per cent plunge, according to Boring Money analysis.
在2021年初的网红股热潮中,巨额回报的故事引发了新交易的热潮。有些人大获全胜。一位在2020年12月底购买游戏驿站(GameStop)股票的投资者可以在一个月内将1万英镑变成168744英镑——当时该网红股在2021年1月29日达到峰值,涨幅近1600%。但也存在巨额亏损的可能性:根据Boring Money的分析,如果投资者在高点买入,然后在2月底卖出,在股价暴跌69%之后,同样的1万英镑一个月之内将缩水至3129英镑。
Even so, many young investors reject the “dumb money” label applied to their trades. They say the odds are worth the punt, given the alternatives. Many investors remember the unequal recovery from the 2008 crisis when government bailouts, followed by a decade-long bull run in markets, left the uninvested behind. When markets tumbled as Covid-19 hit in March 2020, they didn’t want to miss out a second time. New technology meant there was never an easier time to get involved.
即便如此,许多年轻投资者还是拒绝给自己的交易贴上“傻钱”的标签。他们说,考虑到其他选择,这种可能性是值得一搏的。许多投资者还记得2008年危机后的不平等复苏,当时政府纾困,随后市场进入长达10年的牛市,把未投资的人抛在了后面。2020年3月,当新冠疫情爆发时,市场暴跌,他们不想再错过第二次。新技术意味着现在是最容易参与的时候。
The introduction of commission-free trading in stocks in the run-up to the pandemic added momentum to lottery-like investing behaviour. In 2015 the zero-commission brokerage Robinhood was launched, promising to “democratise” financial markets. Four years later, almost every US-based broker had eliminated commissions for equity trading. Robinhood’s game-like app allowed customers to sign up and start trading stocks on their phones within minutes.
在大流行前夕推出的股票免佣金交易,为彩票式的投资行为增添了动力。2015年,零佣金经纪公司Robinhood横空出世,承诺让金融市场“民主化”。4年后,几乎所有美国券商都取消了股票交易佣金。Robinhood的游戏式应用程序允许用户在几分钟内注册并开始在手机上交易股票。
Slick cryptocurrency exchanges such as Coinbase emerged as the number of digital coins on the market exploded. A “meme coin” craze driven by super-influencers such as Elon Musk introduced an avalanche of outlandish offerings — from those named after celebrities (Coinye West) to the “dog coins” Shiba Inu and dogecoin. In April 2013, there were just seven cryptocurrencies available for mining and trading. Today, there are tens of thousands.
随着市场上数字代币数量的激增,Coinbase等灵活的加密货币交易所应运而生。埃隆•马斯克等超级有影响力的人掀起了一股“网红币”热潮,推出了大量稀奇古怪的产品,从以名人名字命名的(Coinye West)数字代币到“犬类币”柴犬币(Shiba Inu)和狗狗币(dogecoin) 。2013年4月,只有7种加密货币可以进行数字挖矿和交易。如今,这一数字已达数万种。
Getting involved was simple. “It’s five buttons on the website,” says Luke Hawley, a 21-year-old going into his senior year at Endicott college in Massachusetts who studies finance. “It’s easier to buy Shiba Inu on Coinbase than buy an index.”
参与其中很简单。21岁的卢克•霍利(Luke Hawley)就读于马萨诸塞州恩迪科特学院(Endicott college)金融专业,即将进入大四。他说:“网站上有五个按钮。“在Coinbase上购买柴犬币比购买指数更容易。”
Hawley says it has become normal on his college campus to talk about betting and speculating. “People think, ‘OK I’ve got a couple thousand in the bank — in the real world that’s, like, broke’,” he says. “There’s a lot of Fomo,” he adds, about the idea of passing over a chance to turn a small stake into big money.
霍利说,在他的大学校园里,谈论赌博和投机已经成为常态。“人们会想,‘好吧,我在银行里有几千块钱——在现实世界里,那就像是破产了’,”他说。“有很多‘错失恐惧症’(Fomo),”他补充说,指的是错过把小钱变成大笔财富的机会。
Young men in particular have been attracted to this kind of moonshot investing. The vast majority of cryptocurrency investors are men and more than 90 per cent of trades in Gamestop and AMC were made by men during the peak of the meme stock frenzy, according to the UK brokerage Interactive Investor. Experts say one reason these investments are treated like casual bets is because the brokerage apps feel like gambling platforms — only without the regulatory guardrails.
年轻的男性尤其被这种“登月”式投资所吸引。根据英国经纪公司Interactive Investor的数据,绝大多数加密货币投资者都是男性,Gamestop和AMC超过90%的交易都是在网红股狂热的高峰期由男性进行的。专家表示,这些投资被视为随意的押注的一个原因是,经纪应用程序感觉像赌博平台——只是没有监管护栏。
“Increasingly platforms are blurring the line between gaming, gambling and investing, especially platforms that enable the use of cryptocurrency,” says Jack Symons, chief executive of the UK app Gamban, which allows users to block gambling apps on their phones and computers. Gamban began to block brokerage and crypto platforms last summer. “Some might say this is a blunt approach, but gambling doesn’t look like it used to. It’s not something that only happens [in a casino] on green felt,” Symons said in October.
“越来越多的平台正在模糊游戏、赌博和投资之间的界限,尤其是支持使用加密货币的平台,”英国应用Gamban的首席执行官杰克•西蒙斯(Jack Symons)表示。该应用允许用户在手机和电脑上屏蔽赌博应用。去年夏天,Gamban开始封锁经纪和加密平台。“有些人可能会说这是一种生硬的方式,但博彩业已经不像过去那样了。这不是只发生在(赌场里的)绿毡上的事情,”西蒙斯在10月份说。
Late last year, the largest American gambling hotline told the Financial Times it was seeing a marked increase in the number of calls coming from people addicted to day trading, rather than traditional gambling or sports betting. One reason might be that, as Stevenson explains, investing does not carry the same social stigma as gambling.
去年年底,美国最大的赌博热线告诉英国《金融时报》,沉迷于日间交易、而不是传统赌博或体育博彩的人打来的电话数量明显增加。一个原因可能是,正如史蒂文森解释的那样,投资并不像赌博那样带有社会污名。
“If you said, ‘My dad spends all day gambling,’ [I’d] say, ‘Oh man I’m so sorry for your family’,” he says. But “if someone says, ‘My dad spends all day FX trading’, you think he’s the Wolf of Wall Street . . . It’s not gambling, it’s investing — and investing is how you get rich.”
“如果你说,‘我爸爸整天都在赌博’,(我会)说,‘天哪,我真为你的家人感到难过’,”他说。但“如果有人说,‘我爸爸整天都在做外汇交易’,你会认为他是华尔街之狼……这不是赌博,这是投资——而投资是你致富的途径。”

Diamond hands

钻石手

In recent months, as the air has rushed out of the cryptocurrency balloon, the most speculative parts of the market have been hardest hit. But as prices crashed, attempts by some crypto companies to persuade investors to keep faith and hold on through what they dismissed as just another cyclical “crypto winter” shows the growing power of online communities.
近几个月来,随着加密货币气球的空气被挤出,市场中最具投机性的部分受到了最严重的打击。但随着价格暴跌,一些加密公司试图说服投资者保持信心,坚持度过他们认为只是又一个周期性的“加密冬天”,这表明在线社区的力量日益强大。
The under-25s are twice as likely to turn to social media for financial advice than any other age group, and more than three times as likely to do so than to seek help from a professional, according to a survey by UK advisory OpenMoney.
根据英国咨询机构OpenMoney的调查,25岁以下的人向社交媒体寻求金融建议的可能性是其他年龄段的两倍,是向专业人士寻求帮助的可能性的三倍多。
Robinhood’s rise happened as online communities on Twitter and Reddit began to play a bigger role in investing. Reddit subforums such as r/WallStreetBets provided specialist information for would-be investors, facilitated their discussions and plucked at their heartstrings.
Robinhood的崛起是在Twitter和Reddit上的在线社区开始在投资中发挥更大作用之际。r/WallStreetBets等Reddit分论坛为潜在投资者提供了专业信息,促进了他们的讨论,触动了他们的心弦。
Big losses could be laughed off with peers and big gains shared and celebrated. Those who held their nerve were lauded for their hubris: “diamond hands” became the emoji-vernacular for holding tight to a bold position even when it collapses.
巨额亏损可以与同龄人一笑置之,而巨额收益则可以共享和庆祝。那些保持镇定的人因他们的傲慢而受到赞扬:“钻石手”成为表情符号语言,表示在一个大胆的仓位有崩溃之虞时仍紧紧抓住它。
A study by academics at the University of Sydney last year found that people aged between 18 and 24 were much more likely to make risky decisions when they thought their peers were watching. Agnieszka Tymuła, the lead researcher on the study, says online communities of investors amplify the same behaviour: “People want to take risks, to get that big win and post about it.”
悉尼大学学者去年的一项研究发现,当18岁至24岁的人认为同龄人在看着他们时,他们更有可能做出冒险的决定。该研究的首席研究员Agnieszka Tymuła表示,在线投资者社区放大了同样的行为:“人们想要冒险,想要获得巨大的胜利,并公布出来。”
The illusion of control also amplifies risk taking. Whether by laying out the specifics of niche cryptocurrencies, or discussing “moonshot” strategies, web forums encourage members to feel that the odds of winning are significantly greater than they actually are. Regulation has not kept up with the spread of misinformation.
控制的幻觉也放大了冒险。无论是通过阐述小众加密货币的具体情况,还是讨论“登月”战略,网络论坛都鼓励成员认为,获胜的几率比实际情况大得多。监管没有跟上虚假信息传播的步伐。
Some college students say they are increasingly familiar with the dangers of cryptocurrency “pump and dump” schemes such as so-called rug-pulls — when a developer launches a cryptoasset, drives the price up via social media influencers and then disappears with their gains before the price collapses.
一些大学生表示,他们越来越熟悉加密货币“拉高和抛售”计划的危险,比如所谓的“抽地毯骗局”——开发商推出一种加密资产,先通过社交媒体上的影响力推高价格,然后在价格暴跌前带着收益消失。
“It’s not pretty being on the back end of a rug-pull,” says Harrison Turner, a 19-year-old rising college junior from Montgomery, Alabama. Still, he says, he understands the influencer’s motivation: “He saw an opportunity and he took it.”
来自阿拉巴马州蒙哥马利的19岁即将升入大学三年级的哈里森•特纳(Harrison Turner)说:“在‘抽地毯’的后端可不是件好事。”不过,他说,他理解网红的动机:“他看到了机会,并抓住了它。”

Get rich slow

慢慢致富

Despite the increasingly hostile investing environment, high-risk speculation may be here to stay. “It worked spectacularly well for some people, and old habits die hard,” says Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at US trading platform interactive brokers. “They’re still using margin to speculate, even as rates go up.”
尽管投资环境日益恶劣,但高风险的投机行为可能会继续存在。"美国交易平台interactive brokers的首席策略师Steve Sosnick说:“这对一些人来说效果非常好,旧的习惯很难改变。他们仍然在使用保证金进行投机,即使是在利率上升的时候。”
In May, the amount of money borrowed to trade on margin was 25 per cent above pre-pandemic levels, data from Finra shows.
美国金融业监管局(Finra)的数据显示,今年5月,用于保证金交易的借款金额比疫情前水平高出25%。
Traditional wealth managers are uneasy about the prospect of digital assets going mainstream. Nearly half of fund selectors say they feel pressure to offer cryptocurrencies to attract younger investors, according to research by Natixis. Yet 70 per cent say they think individuals should not have exposure to the volatile asset.
传统财富管理公司对数字资产成为主流的前景感到不安。法国外贸银行(Natixis)的研究显示,近一半的基金挑选者表示,他们感到有压力,要提供加密货币来吸引更年轻的投资者。然而,70%的受访者表示,他们认为个人不应持有这种波动性较大的资产。
“Cryptocurrency is not the systemic solution to income inequality,” says Georgia Lee Hussey, a wealth manager and founder of Modernist Financial. “If your investing strategy is sexy, you’re doing it wrong.”
“加密货币不是解决收入不平等的系统性解决方案,”财富经理、现代主义金融公司(modernism Financial)创始人乔治亚•李•赫西(Georgia Lee Hussey)表示。“如果你的投资策略很诱人,那你就做错了。”
Brokerages are also worried that investors burnt by big losses could retreat from markets entirely, reinforced in their view that the game is rigged. Attempts to educate potential clients means reaching investors where they are — on social platforms. Fidelity has embraced both digital assets and social media outreach in an effort to connect with investors and convince them it is possible to get rich slow.
经纪公司还担心,遭受巨大损失的投资者可能会完全从市场上撤退,他们认为游戏被操纵的观点会得到加强。试图教育潜在客户意味着要在投资者所在的地方——社交平台上接触他们。富达(Fidelity)已经将服务扩大到数字资产和社交媒体的宣传,努力与投资者建立联系,说服他们有可能慢慢致富。
“Young investors report that their top concern is their financial security — how to have enough to be ‘OK’,” says Kelly Lannan, head of emerging customers at Fidelity. “It’s very basic . . . We hear that more with this generation.”
富达新兴客户主管凯利•兰南(Kelly Lannan)表示:“年轻投资者表示,他们最关心的是财务安全——如何拥有足够多的钱,让自己‘没问题’。这是非常基本的……我们在这一代人那里听到的更多。”
While Zettler says he has become more “boring” with his investments, others like Turner are still comfortable risking it all. He has already lost his brokerage funds once by mistiming a meme-stock bet, but says he can always earn enough to put a few thousand dollars in a brokerage account. “The money will come and go,” he says. He knows he could lose it all.
虽然泽特勒说他的投资已经变得越来越“无聊”,但像特纳这样的其他人仍然愿意冒一切风险。他曾经因为在一次押注网红股的过程中押错了时间而损失了自己的经纪资金,但他说他总能赚到足够的钱,在一个经纪账户里存几千美元。“钱会来了又走,”他说。他知道他可能会失去全部。
Then again, he says, he could get lucky.
不过,他说,他也可能会走运。
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