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国际社会有一种令人震惊的倾向，认为发展中国家的债务是可持续的，因为它们可以在作出一些牺牲之后得到偿还。
There is an alarming tendency among the international community to regard debts in the developing world as sustainable because they can, after some sacrifice, be paid off.
但这就像说一个贫穷的家庭可以维持下去，因为他们总是能够偿还高利贷。采纳这一观点，就会忽视为了支付利息而被迫忍受的饥饿、被迫放弃的教育投资和被迫短缺的医疗支出。这种债务陷阱正在形成一场社会灾难。十年后，债务可能还了，但这个家会毁了。
But this is like saying a poor family will stay afloat because they always repay their loan sharks. To take this view is to overlook the skipped meals, the foregone investment in education and the lack of health spending that forcibly make room for interest payments. This sort of debt trap is a social catastrophe in the making. Ten years from now, the debt may be repaid, but the family will be ruined.
这是许多发展中国家无论大小都面临的困境。疫情、生活成本危机和利率上升，使他们只能通过紧缩或放弃对可持续发展目标的投资来偿还债务。他们的债务是可持续的，因为他们可以偿还，但在其他方面是不可持续的。
This is the dilemma facing many developing countries, both big and small. The pandemic, cost of living crisis and rising interest rates have brought them to a point where they can only pay their debts by way of austerity or foregone investment in the sustainable development goals (SDGs). Their debts are sustainable in that they can be repaid, but unsustainable in every other way.
此外，这场以债务危机为核心的全面发展危机还可能使世界经济的大部分地区进入新的“失去的十年”。
Furthermore, this full-blown development crisis with debt distress at its core also threatens a new lost decade for much of the world economy.
上世纪80年代那样的债务危机可能会威胁到全球金融稳定，而这种危机的重演没有受到重视。但发展中国家（除中国外）的公共债务在2021年达到11.5万亿美元。根据某些说法，严重的债务问题主要局限于这一数字的一小部分，主要来自乍得、赞比亚或埃塞俄比亚等非常脆弱的低收入国家。
The repeat of a 1980s-style debt crisis that could in turn threaten global financial stability is perceived to be marginal. But the public debt of developing countries, excluding China, reached $11.5tn in 2021. By some accounts, serious debt problems are largely confined to a small share of this figure, owed by highly vulnerable low-income countries such as Chad, Zambia or Ethiopia.
但形势正在迅速恶化。疫情期间，100多个发展中国家的政府债务激增了近2万亿美元，原因是社会支出增加，而收入因封锁而冻结。现在，各国央行都在提高利率，这加剧了这个问题。利率上升意味着发展中经济体的资本外逃和货币贬值，以及借贷成本上升。这些因素已将加纳或斯里兰卡等国推入债务困境。
But the situation is deteriorating rapidly. During the pandemic, government debt ballooned by almost $2tn in more than 100 developing countries (excluding China), as social spending went up while incomes froze due to lockdowns. Now, central banks are raising interest rates, which exacerbates the problem. Rising rates have meant capital flight and currency depreciation in developing economies, as well as increasing borrowing costs. These factors have pushed countries such as Ghana or Sri Lanka into debt distress.
2021年，发展中国家偿还了4000亿美元的债务，是它们获得官方发展援助金额的两倍多。与此同时，它们的国际储备去年减少了6000多亿美元，几乎是它们通过IMF特别提款权(SDR)获得的紧急支持的三倍。
In 2021, developing countries paid $400bn in debt service, more than twice the amount they received in official development aid. Meanwhile, their international reserves declined by over $600bn last year, almost three times what they received in emergency support through the IMF Special Drawing Rights allocation.
因此，在日益萎缩的国家资源蛋糕中，外债正在蚕食越来越大的一块。随着通货膨胀加剧，自然灾害更加频繁，粮食和能源进口价格上涨，各国需要更多而不是更少的应急规划援助。
Foreign debts are therefore eating an ever-larger piece of an ever-shrinking national resources pie. As inflation rises, natural disasters become more frequent and food and energy imports rise in price, countries need more, not less, contingency planning assistance.
A much bolder approach is needed. Recent efforts by the international community to agree on large-scale emergency debt measures have faltered. This is despite important efforts at the G20 through the now-discontinued Debt Service Suspension Initiative, and the Common Framework for Debt Treatments, which is in need of crucial improvements, such as suspending payments during negotiations and an extension to middle-income countries in debt distress.
我们需要一个更加大胆的方法。国际社会最近就大规模紧急债务措施达成一致的努力已经受挫。尽管20国集团(G20)通过现已终止的“暂停偿债倡议”和“债务处理共同框架”做出了重要努力，但该框架仍需要进行重大改进，例如在谈判期间暂停偿债，以及将债务危机扩大到中等收入国家。
The failure of these efforts has revealed the complexity of existing procedures, characterised by creditors who refuse to engage in restructuring with extraordinary powers of sabotage. Crisis resolutions are often too little, too late. The world lacks an effective system to deal with debt.
这些努力的失败揭示了现有程序的复杂性，其特点是具有巨大破坏力量的债权人拒绝参与重组。危机解决方案往往太少、太迟。世界缺乏有效的债务处理体系。
An independent sovereign debt authority that engages with creditor and debtor interests, both institutional and private, is urgently needed. At a minimum, such an authority should provide coherent guidelines for suspending debt payments in disaster situations, ensuring SDGs are considered in debt sustainability assessments, and providing expert advice to governments in need.
我们迫切需要一个独立的主权债务管理机构，协调债权人和债务人的利益（包括机构利益和私人利益）。至少，这样一个机构应该为在灾难情况下暂停偿还债务提供一致的指导方针，确保可持续发展目标在债务可持续性评估中得到考虑，并为有需要的政府提供专家建议。
Furthermore, a public debt registry for developing countries would allow both lenders and borrowers to access debt data. This would go a long way in boosting debt transparency, strengthening debt management, reducing the risk of debt distress and improving access to financing. Progress on both these fronts could begin with an independent review of the G20 debt agenda: India’s presidency may bring a historic opportunity to succeed where others have faltered.
此外，发展中国家的公共债务登记机构将使借方和贷方都能获得债务数据。这将大大有助于提高债务透明度、加强债务管理、降低债务困境风险和改善融资渠道。这两个方面的进展可以从对20国集团债务议程的独立审查开始：印度担任主席国可能会带来一个历史机遇，在其他国家步履蹒跚的地方取得成功。
Tackling the current global debt crisis is not only a moral imperative. In a context of growing climate and geopolitical distress, it is one the biggest threats to global peace and security and financial stability. Without supporting countries to become sustainable, their debts will never be realistically repayable.
应对当前的全球债务危机不仅是道义上的责任。在气候和地缘政治困境日益加剧的背景下，它是全球和平与安全以及金融稳定的最大威胁之一。如果不支持这些国家实现可持续发展，它们的债务就永远无法切实偿还。
